基于随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合的电镀厂周边地表水重金属健康风险评价Electroplating Factory Periphery Surface Water Heavy Metal Pollution Health Risk Assessment Based on Coupling Model of Stochastic Simulation and Triangular Fuzzy Number
余葱葱,姚鹏
摘要(Abstract):
为了更准确地研究地表水环境中重金属对人体的潜在健康危害,在美国环保署US EPA提出的健康风险评价模型的基础上构建随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合的健康风险评价模型(SS-TFN模型),对东莞市西部地区A镇、B镇、C镇、D镇和E镇电镀厂周边地表水中8种重金属(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn)引起的健康风险进行评价。结果表明:研究区各镇总健康风险较高,地表水中重金属经饮水途径引起的成人和儿童健康风险均高于最大可接受风险水平(5. 0×10-5a-1),风险级别均在IV级风险及以上,儿童健康风险均大于成人健康风险,更容易受到重金属所致健康风险的威胁。重金属平均健康风险大小从高到低顺序依次为Cr>As>Cd>Pb>Ni>Cu>Hg>Zn。健康风险主要来自致癌性重金属,其中,As和Cr引起的成人和儿童健康风险空间分布较不均匀,应将其作为风险决策管理的优先控制对象。
关键词(KeyWords): 重金属;地表水;电镀厂;SS-TFN;健康风险评价
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 余葱葱,姚鹏
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