韦成,林毓华,韦宁,江杰,蔡杏珍,陈铭熙

• 1:广西工业设计集团有限公司
• 2:广西大学土木建筑工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

滑坡时间预测是滑坡风险管理的重要组成部分，受限于多种不确定性、随机性因素的影响，准确预测滑坡时间非常困难。本研究提出一种基于贝叶斯更新的参数估计方法对滑坡时间进行实时概率预测，并进行多模型集成预测分析。结果表明：两个滑坡案例验证了贝叶斯更新进行滑坡时间概率预测的可行性；实时预测中，早期加速变形阶段的预测不确定性大，只有在临滑阶段才能获取较为可靠的预测结果；多模型集成预测分析可提升实时预测的可靠性，因此建议采用多模型集成进行滑坡时间预测决策。

关键词(KeyWords)： 滑坡;失稳时间;贝叶斯更新;概率预测;集成决策

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目（52068004）;; 广西重点研发计划项目（AB19245018）

作者(Author): 韦成,林毓华,韦宁,江杰,蔡杏珍,陈铭熙

参考文献(References)：

• [1]许强.对滑坡监测预警相关问题的认识与思考[J].工程地质学报，2020,28(2):360-374.
• [2]SAITO M, UEZAWA H. Failure of soil due to creep[C].//Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Soil mechanics and Foundation Engineering,1961:315-318.
• [3]尚敏，张惠强，廖芬，等.考虑降雨滞后效应的八字门滑坡位移预测研究[J].自然灾害学报，2022,31(3):242-250.
• [4]张洁，姚鸿增，王梓芃.基于位移的滑坡时间概率预测方法[C].//2021年全国工程地质学术年会论文集，2021:103-112.
• [5]FUKUZONO T. New methods for predicting the failure time of a slope[C].∥Proceedings of the 4th International Conference and Field Workshop on Landslides,Tokyo:Tokyo University Press,1985:145-150.
• [6]VOIGHT B. A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions[J].Nature,1988,332(6160):125-130.
• [7]李天斌，陈明东.滑坡时间预报的费尔哈斯反函数模型法[J].地质灾害与环境保护，1996(3):13-17,29.
• [8]MUFUNDIRWA A,FUJII Y,KODAMA J. A new practical method for prediction of geomechanical failure-time[J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,2010,47(7):1079-1090.
• [9]FUKUI K,OKUBO S,NISHIMATSU Y. Creep behavior of rock under uniaxial compression[J]. Shigen-to-Sozai,1989,105(7):521-526.
• [10]SEGALINI A,VALLETTA A,CARRI A. Landslide time-offailure forecast and alert threshold assessment:A generalized criterion[J]. Engineering Geology,2018,245:72-80.
• [11]ZHANG J,WANG Z P,ZHANG G D,et al. Probabilistic prediction of slope failure time[J]. Engineering Geology,2020,271.
• [12]刘传正.累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报[J].工程地质学报，2021,29(1):86-95.
• [13]CARLàT,INTRIERI E,DI TRAGLIA F,et al. Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses[J]. Landslides,2017,14(2):517-534.
• [14]DU H,SONG D. Investigation of failure prediction of open-pit coal mine landslides containing complex geological structures using the inverse velocity method[J]. Natural Hazards,2022,111(3):2819-2854.
• [15]孙阳.基于多目标及贝叶斯理论的岩土工程反分析方法研究[D].湖北武汉：武汉大学，2019.
• [16]宋宇飞，曹琰波，范文，等.基于贝叶斯方法的降雨诱发滑坡概率型预警模型研究[J]，岩石力学与工程学报，2023,42(3):558-574.
• [17]WANG C H,FANG L,CHANG D T T,et al. Back-analysis of a rainfall-induced landslide case history using deterministic and random limit equilibrium methods[J]. Engineering Geology,2023,317.
• [18]ZHANG J,WANG Z,HU J,et al. Bayesian machine learningbased method for prediction of slope failure time[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering,2022,14(4):1188-1199.
• [19]INTRIERI E,CARLàT,GIGLI G. Forecasting the time of failure of landslides at slope-scale:A literature review[J]. Earth-science reviews,2019,193:333-349.
• [20]HOFFMAN M D, GELMAN A. The No-U-Turn sampler:adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo[J]. J. Mach.Learn. Res.,2014,15(1):1593-1623.
• [21]梅其岳.天荒坪开关站滑坡的形成条件和滑动机理[J].岩石力学与工程学报，2001(1):25-28.
• [22]马海涛，张亦海，于正兴.滑坡速度倒数法预测模型加速开始点识别及临滑时间预测研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报，2012,40(2):355-364.
• [23]许强，曾裕平，钱江澎等.一种改进的切线角及对应的滑坡预警判据[J].地质通报，2009,28(4):501-505.